I had spent some time over the holidays getting some data together about the last few elections but haven’t had time to really do anything with them. It’s hard to compare like for like because precincts get consolidated and numbers change but I was able to compare the last Mayoral election with the City Council race in 2020. Specifically these are Trish Spencer’s numbers for her race against Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft in 2022 and four other candidates for City Council in 2020.
As you can see Trish Spencer, regardless of the number of candidates running, has a ceiling in Alameda. One would expect, because there were less candidates running, for her to receive a much higher percentage of votes for the Mayor’s race but she performed almost exactly the same, percentage wise, from 2020 to 2022.
Essentially if you want to beat Trish Spencer when she runs for re-election for her Council seat in 2024: run two strong candidates who will appeal to Bay Farm because that’s where Trish Spencer collects the majority of her votes. In 2020 she only broke the top two in 94501 in one precinct: the Gold Coast.
Blogging Bayport Alameda 
Are you able to attach a map or otherwise describe location of these precincts?
Comment by dave — March 6, 2023 @ 8:16 am
If the 2-to-1 landslide walloping defeat didn’t convince folks of Trish’s low favorability, then I don’t know what would. I was told that Trish would’ve won back in 2018 if Frank Matarrese hadn’t split her votes, but now we know those all went to Ashcraft in 2022 based on her improved margin of victory.
Comment by JRB — March 6, 2023 @ 8:32 am
If I had a dollar for every time you’ve posted that tidbit & a quarter for each handle you’ve posted it under, I could could fund the entire 2024 campaign
Comment by Get some new material — March 6, 2023 @ 9:30 am
And I love repeating it because it’s the delicious truth. Trish is all noise, no support.
Comment by JRB — March 6, 2023 @ 10:13 am
Agree. Lauren and JRB with an unhealthy ( and frankly boring) obsession about Trish.
Lauren’s “observation” about running two candidates would be true for any candidate. That’s why Bonta “clears the field” before running for office.
Comment by Self Own — March 6, 2023 @ 10:34 am
Your conclusion that she has a cap is encouraging. Seeing how the different precincts compare in the same election is enlightening. It was disappointing to see the percentage of neighbors in my precinct who voted for her.
However, though the 2020 percentages are lower, seems to me she did much better in 2020. It’s because of the difference in number of candidates. In 2020 the 100% is spread across five candidates and in 2022 across three candidates. In a strictly nominal sense, think of it as an extra 40% of 2020 votes available to spread across the 2022 candidates (2 less candidates at a nominal 20% each).
Comment by Apples Oranges — March 6, 2023 @ 9:59 am