Blogging Bayport Alameda

November 17, 2022

Check in: election results

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 8:17 am

It’s at this point I wonder if Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft can get to 60% of the vote and I REALLY hope that she can.

Unlike 2018 where so many people tried to take away from Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft’s victory by calling Frank Matarrese a spoiler, even if Trish Spencer had Barack Obama Shaw’s votes it still would have put her well behind Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft’s commanding lead. This was, essentially, a head to head battle.

In the City Council race, the Monday batch had already shifted 3rd, 4th, and 5th places dropping Paul B to 5th when he had been chilling at 3rd place the day after the election.

I think, as campaigns do their post mortems on how they did, Hannah Groce’s campaign should be asking “what if” if her campaign had been slightly more robust and had more of a ground campaign. I think Hannah Groce could be a top contender in two years if she takes these next two years to get a lot more name recognition and some Board or Commission experience. Malia Vella will be termed out and Trish Spencer, who has shown her current electoral weakness, will be up so the field will be pretty open.

It’s possible, given how strongly Paul B came out of the gate we may have been seeing returns from Bay Farm and the Gold Coast, we’ll see how everything shakes out when the statement of votes is released.

The School Board results have told us that there are exactly 5016 cranks out there that either (a) hate the school district and/or (b) have some weirdo anti-equity, anti-COVID protocol positions. It’s nice to get a clear image of how many voters want the worst for our AUSD students out there.

Maybe, given that Measure E is passing with a lot more breathing room we can have some new candidates in the field that may not have previously considered running for office.

And finally, I don’t know if this lead will hold but current Lena Tam is still ahead in the Supervisor’s race:

17 Comments »

  1. Thanks for the update.

    However you’re missing the election race that has changed. Pamela Price now has 51.05% of the vote. Electing a progressive DA is a powerful statement that the people of Alameda County are ready for a change.

    Comment by Beth Kenny — November 17, 2022 @ 8:33 am

    • Trish never had a chance. The vote differences reflect the fact that one side used ballot harvesting and the others did not because it is too expensive without party and union support. Votes don’t matter anymore-only collecting ballots by using voter rolls to see who has or hasn’t voted. This will continue as long as we have mail in voting and politicians who desire lifetime tenure in offices. Each winning state political won by almost an identical 17.5% with the only blip being Lahnee Chen who was still wiped out by the establishment candidate.

      Comment by Common Sense — November 17, 2022 @ 10:15 am

      • And by “ballot harvesting” are you referring to people just dropping off their ballots into drop boxes?

        It must be a sad existence you live.

        Comment by Lauren Do — November 17, 2022 @ 10:18 am

      • Please explain what you think ballot harvesting is.

        Comment by Please — November 17, 2022 @ 11:46 am

      • Lmao. Trish never had a chance because she was a crap and corrupt candidate. Her opposition did a very good job of reminding people exactly who Trish Herrera Spencer is. Some of the biggest Reddit Alameda posts of all time are Trish infographics that highlighted her terrible war on the most vulnerable Alamedans. Fuck Trish Spencer forever.

        Comment by JRB — November 17, 2022 @ 10:41 pm

        • Spencer lost because Ashcraft was the incumbent and not easy to nail down, or to write off as plainly belonging to an objectionable faction. In other words, Ashcraft had incumbent advantages and was centrist enough. Which is fine. She’s not bad, and certainly isn’t Vella or Oddie.

          Comment by RJS — November 17, 2022 @ 10:48 pm

        • RJS – how much of a vote differential could be attributed to incumbency? 5%? 10%? 20%? When the gap is 2-to-1 and a whopping 4,000-vote difference, that isn’t just the power of incumbency but a total shellacking, outright damnation of Trish Spencer as a politician. Even when Trish was mayor and was the incumbent candidate, she still lost by 1,400 votes, one of only 3 mayors in Alameda history to lose reelection.

          Comment by JRB — November 18, 2022 @ 4:51 pm

  2. It’s no surprise that Traiman and Van Maren are tied. Each was an outsider candidate running more against the district than for it. Each appeals to same or very similar voters.

    But the big difference between Lym and Lalonde is curious. They were a slate of sorts, putting up a few joint yard signs and other types of co-operation. Each appeals to voters who are both engaged and supportive of AUSD. A 3,000 undervote for Lalaonde, who IMO has the much stronger & broader public presence is really curious, and I wonder if anyone has a thought why.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2022 @ 8:44 am

    • I think the joint signs were from AEA not from the Lym or LaLonde campaigns themselves.

      The undervote tally will be really key for the School Board to understanding this dynamic. I have thoughts on what the gap may be but it makes me sad and so I’ll hold those thoughts until the statement of votes comes out.

      Comment by Lauren Do — November 17, 2022 @ 10:16 am

      • My mind went there immediately. Sigh.

        Comment by Maureen Shandobil — November 17, 2022 @ 10:28 am

    • Name recognition is not to be dismissed. Alameda voters like voting for names they recognize. It takes mutliple elections for candidates to garner the votes to get elected. I ran my first campaign in 1994 the same year Tony Daysog first ran for City Council. Tony finished 5th 3000 votes below the third place winner. Two years later he garnered an additional 2000 votes to finish high enough to be elected.
      Once again if Hannah Groce runs in 2024 with strong engagement in local issues, she will be a viable challenger for termed out Malia Vella.

      Comment by Mike McMahon — November 17, 2022 @ 10:26 am

      • Hannah Groce easily could’ve won this election if she had a half-competent campaign consultant. The fact that she came this close with hardly any lawn signs or online ads is pretty freaking remarkable. A single day of canvassing could’ve flipped 500 people the other way.

        Comment by JRB — November 17, 2022 @ 10:39 pm

      • I agree with this Mike. It’s also possible – though hard to know – that voters have some concerns over how a subset of LGBTQ+ issues on which LaLonde was outspoken will be handled. It’s if course possible voters were just bigoted. But higher explanations seem more likely.

        Comment by RJS — November 17, 2022 @ 11:01 pm

        • “that voters have some concerns over how a subset of LGBTQ+ issues”

          Wow dude, way to out yourself as a bigot!

          Comment by Reuben Stob of Alameda — November 18, 2022 @ 4:03 pm

  3. So happy about the DA results as well! She was outspent by the Wiley campaign (raising huge sums from current DA employees and law enforcement) but somehow she prevailed. She will join the ranks of Larry Krasner, Diana Becton, Rachael Rollins, etc. and stop overprosecuting youth and people of color. Let’s just hope she isn’t attacked by right-wing factions like Chesa Boudin was in SF.

    Comment by therealdanwood — November 17, 2022 @ 8:45 am

    • SF voters are right wing?
      Balderdash & poppycock.

      When crime spiked, especially crime against elderly Asians, he refused to adress, dug in his heels and pouted that he was right and the people were wrong. Same when he said it was morally wrong to arrest Guatamalen fentynal dealers.

      Chesa sank Chesa.

      Comment by Get over yourself — November 17, 2022 @ 10:43 am

      • We have our own unique, local definition of “right-wing” here, as members one of the most lopsidedly D districts in the nation. The local definition includes most centrist Democrats (including many or most Democrats in other jurisdiction, particularly outside of the West Coast) and almost all independents. Nothing inherently wrong with that. But useful to keep in mind as we assess phenomena like the Boudin recall.

        Comment by RJS — November 17, 2022 @ 1:43 pm


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