Blogging Bayport Alameda

November 10, 2022

So you’re saying there’s still a chance

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 6:00 am

We’ll know more after the Registrar of Voters drops another batch at 5:00 PM this evening but just to play with the math a little bit around Trish Spencer’s possibility of a comeback here are some numbers from 2018 when Trish Spencer ran against Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft with a third candidate in the mix.

Oh, by the way here was Trish Spencer’s message on her Facebook to her supporters yesterday morning:

It’s not too hopeful but she hasn’t closed the door on being able to pull off a massive upset.

However if we look at the numbers we do have Trish Spencer has to make up a lot of ground in order to catch Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft, I wish I had captured a screen shot when the numbers were first released so I know which part was precinct voting and which part was mail in. But currently the ROV says they have about 20K mail in ballot received.

If we assume that we will get closer to 2018 return numbers we’re looking at around 31K votes for Alameda. Then if we also assume that Barack Obama Shaw will receive 4% of all remaining votes which is conservatively lower than what he received on the first drop, then Trish Spencer would need for all remaining drops to break at 52% or more for her to overtake Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft. As we can see from the first results Trish Spencer would need to improve her performance by 13 points to bridge the gap. If anything comes in below 50% on subsequent counts for her the math becomes increasingly hard for her to overcome.

To compare with how the candidates did in 2018, here’s a breakdown from 2018, as you can see, Trish Spencer only beat Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft three times in the count releases that’s not going to cut it.

Because as we can see Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft would pull, at least eight or nine point leads above Trish Spencer when she won the drop and Trish Spencer’s best showing was six points.

Anyway, we’ll have a better outlook after tonight.

15 Comments »

  1. Trish would have to do 22% better on the remaining ballots, which is ludicrous. Given that vote count grows progressive in later days due to all the young procrastinators, I’m comfortable with calling this one. Now, I’m interested to see whether Paul B really did beat Oddie and Groce once all is counted. My money is no.

    Comment by JRB — November 10, 2022 @ 6:18 am

  2. The question is, will she actually concede this time?

    Comment by Rod — November 10, 2022 @ 6:21 am

    • If history is a guide, she will never concede and will continue to call herself “The People’s Mayor.”

      Comment by John Gilles — November 10, 2022 @ 10:07 am

  3. As of 7am Nov 10, the ROV has received 24,500 Alameda ballots to process. Through election night, the ROV had tabulated around 10500+/- ballots. In June, the ROV processed around 4000 ballots in their first release of updated results.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 10, 2022 @ 7:01 am

    • The State of Florida completed their vote count in a couple of hours-7.5 million. The nation’s Of Brazil and France have election results within a few hours. And they don’t us machines-all paper ballots. Our system is badly broken.

      Comment by Good Swimmer — November 10, 2022 @ 12:35 pm

      • I love how you are committed to being so wrong when the answer via a super simple Google search is so easy to find:

        https://www.bbc.com/news/63061930
        https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/french-election-results-faster-united-states/

        Comment by Lauren Do — November 10, 2022 @ 1:37 pm

        • Classic non-response. Both cited articles are about France where all the votes are counted in a day. Neither article refutes the State of Florida performance, Texas, Kentucky, Indiana or several other states with long ballots like California. And Brazil counts 119 million votes in about 12 hours. Arizona and Nevada are still counting also. Funny how when there might be a change of power the vote slows down, huh.

          Clearly incompetence is enshrined in our Registrar of Voters Office.

          Comment by Registrar of Voters is a joke — November 10, 2022 @ 3:20 pm

        • Literally did you click on either?

          The first article is about Brazil which says they use machines and have used machine voting since 1996.

          The second article points out the French presidential election is literally one vote. One vote in a centralized election system. Next time, try reading.

          Comment by Lauren Do — November 10, 2022 @ 3:51 pm

  4. Is there any chance that Tracy Jensen will be bumped down to 3rd place?

    Comment by activelyAntiracist — November 10, 2022 @ 9:19 am

    • Historical data would say no but just to exercise abundnant caution I will look at the first release of ROV results before calling it. Right now I would her chance of falling would be under 5%

      Comment by Mike McMahon — November 10, 2022 @ 10:08 am

  5. Is waiting a few days really so awful?

    Comment by dave — November 10, 2022 @ 3:49 pm

  6. After the first relase of post election ballots I am ready to call the winners, despite waiting for over 10,000 ballots to be proceseed.
    Mayor – Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft
    CIty Council – Tony Daysog and Tracy Jensen
    School Board – Gary Lym and Ryan Christifer LaLonde
    County DA – Terry Wiley
    AC Transit Ward 3 – Sarah Syed
    Measure E – Too Close to call
    Measure F – Passes

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 10, 2022 @ 5:12 pm

    • I would not call the County DA race just yet. 5,000 vote difference with roughly 200,000-300,000 more votes left to count. Price just needs to do about 2% better on the remaining ballots.

      Comment by JRB — November 10, 2022 @ 6:52 pm

    • Agreed

      Comment by Ron Mooney — November 11, 2022 @ 8:32 am

  7. In the latest ballot drop, Trish’s percentage went down from 39.29% to 38.94%.

    Comment by trow125 — November 10, 2022 @ 9:28 pm


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