Blogging Bayport Alameda

December 17, 2018

Mayor of Bay Farm

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 6:07 am

The Statements of Vote are out for the November election, this is where you get precinct level data to know how your neighbors voted on the issues that you care about.  But it’s also a way to understand where support for various candidates come from around the city.  The most straightforward election (besides Measure K which I will talk about in a different post) is the race for Mayor.

The nutshell is: Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft dominated by winning the majority of the precincts.  There was one major weakness is Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft’s campaign: Bay Farm.   All but three precincts in Bay Farm went for Trish Spencer and they went big for her which is probably why she was ahead when the first dump came through on election night.  And even the precincts that Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft won on Bay Farm were very slight victories by only a handful of votes.  On the other hand where Trish Spencer won on Bay Farm she won big.  So the takeaway is, Trish Spencer’s language of obstruction is definitely one that the denizens of Bay Farm appreciated and wanted another four years of that.

On the main island though Trish Spencer lost badly only winning three out of a lot more precincts.  So if you want to know if your neighborhood’s majority swung in favor of Trish Spencer, here are the precincts:












  1. Posts like this make me wonder if wards — or districts, or whatever you label — them would be a step in the right direction for city council. I can see both pros and cons.

    Comment by dave — December 17, 2018 @ 6:18 am

  2. Do you have a link to the source data? I would like to check out my neighborhood.

    Comment by Denyse — December 17, 2018 @ 7:03 am

  3. There’s been talk of districts. How many, and would Bay Farm effectively advocate to be a separate district or would it be part of an East end district?

    Comment by Gaylon — December 17, 2018 @ 7:04 am

    • I would have thought, by population, it would be its own. But with about 13K (so I read) out of 80K citywide, it would likely have to draw in part of the East End in a 5 seat/Dist Council

      Comment by MP — December 17, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

  4. There were 46 precincts in the 2018 election. I am working preparing a complete analysis of the Alameda election. When completed, (tomorrow) I will publish it. It will have analysis of the Mayor race, City Council race for third place, Measure K vs Measure L/M.

    As a teaser, in the Mayor race Spencer tallied 2749 votes versus Ashcraft 2238 votes on Bay Farm. In 2014, Spencer tallied 2380 versus 2123 for Gilmore. Voter turnout surged in 2018 versus 2014. Spencer won the election in 2014 because of the low voter turnout of 50% versus 73% in 2018.

    Source data is at

    Comment by Mike McMahon — December 17, 2018 @ 7:37 am

  5. I ran into the Mayor of Park Street this weekend. That dude knows how to rock out!

    Comment by Rod — December 17, 2018 @ 9:44 am

  6. Well, I live on The Farm. I’m happy that i am a curmudgeon, though, and not a denizen, of Bay Farm. We are not all crazee way out here in Farmistan

    Comment by abronto4900 — December 17, 2018 @ 10:15 am

  7. Here are bunch of tables with the election results for Alameda’s 2018 election. I got bit overwhelmed by all of the data so if anyone has any questions that would you like answered let me know.

    Click to access Alameda2018ElectionAnalysis.pdf

    Comment by Mike McMahon — December 17, 2018 @ 9:40 pm

    • Thanks for compiling this, Mike.
      Which precincts are you including in your boundaries for East, Central, and West End?

      Comment by RAsheed ☥ Shabazz (@Rasheed_Shabazz) — December 17, 2018 @ 10:47 pm

      • A very crude breakdown since the precincts can meander.

        Bay Farm: 300000 to 300210
        East End: 300300 to 302200

        Central: 302400 to 304120

        West End 30400 to 305700

        The pages in the back have the individual precinct breakdowns.

        Comment by Mike McMahon — December 18, 2018 @ 8:10 am

  8. Here is the final recap of campaign finances for the 2018 general election.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — February 3, 2019 @ 10:35 am

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