Blogging Bayport Alameda

November 9, 2018

Put a fork in it

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 6:09 am

This race is (mostly) over people, nothing to see here except waiting for concession messages to come out.  Stewart Chen has already made his concession. But no one else yet.

According to the Registrar of Voters website, about 55% of vote by mail ballots have been returned:

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 5.33.08 AM

As Mike McMahon posted there probably are a few thousand ballots left to process, but the trend is not looking good for the folks who were behind after the ballot box votes had been calculated on election night/morning.

The race that is pretty much done is the Mayor’s race.  After the initial pre-election VBM numbers that were released at the beginning of the night, Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft has done progressively better with the next set of ballots, earning a greater percentage each time.  The percentages next to the raw vote numbers indicate the share of that set of votes and is not cumulative.

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 5.28.11 AM

So Trish Spencer started off strong with nearly 39% of the vote share after the VBM numbers came in, but at the ballot box and the late VBM showed Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft dominating with 43% and 44% of the vote respectively and Trish Spencer’s heading in a downward trend.

This twitter discussion of the impacts of Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft’s mailer that went unopposed by Trish Spencer is interesting in light of the later votes (ballot box and post election count):

But as history will always repeat itself, it looks like Trish Spencer was largely done in by the same lax campaigning that plagued Marie Gilmore’s campaign.  Rather than getting out there, she went to China for a sister city visit.  Rather than knock on doors she decided her efforts were better spent camping out at Alameda egress points, waving signs, and mistaking honks for votes.

While there is still some room for Robert Matz to possibly take over the third place slot, it’s not looking great for Robert Matz to bridge the (increasing) gap between him and Jim Oddie.   While Robert Matz’s ballot box to pre-election VBM share went up slightly, it’s too close to his pre-election VBM to say that he did substantially better like Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft above.

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 5.28.19 AM

I think Jim Oddie’s lead will hold or grow with the next batches and we’ll see if Robert Matz concedes or fights this one.   For a two year seat, I’m not sure if it’s worth it.  But what it does show that if Robert Matz did have any sort of a ground game or a Get Out the Vote operation we probably wouldn’t be looking at this close of numbers between an incumbent candidate and political novice.

16 Comments

  1. Hey Mike McMahon, when’s the next update?

    Comment by Angela — November 9, 2018 @ 7:33 am

    • Historically, the ROV will release daily updates at 4:45 pm for the next few days. In 2014, there were releases Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

      Comment by Mike McMahon — November 9, 2018 @ 7:41 am

  2. What caught my eye in the first chart is the 31% no preference. Seems high to me though I honestly dont what to compare that against. High for the Bay Area?

    Comment by eyecatch — November 9, 2018 @ 11:08 am

  3. Since you mentioned Twitter, just for fun, I thought I’d check out our new (and former) leaders’ Twitter presences. https://twitter.com/mayor_trish has a whopping 10 followers. https://twitter.com/marilyn4alameda has 13 followers, and she’s never Tweeted. Frank Matarrese is not on Twitter and his website appears to be down (frank2018.org — at least, I was unable to get it to load, though Google does show a cached text-only version).

    Comment by trow125 — November 9, 2018 @ 2:17 pm

  4. I think I will never understand how this is a high voter turn out. How do people not think voting is a top priority, especially in this day and age.

    Comment by Barbara M — November 9, 2018 @ 3:49 pm

  5. i’M SORRY i JUST HAVE TO USE THIS QUOTE ONE MORE TIME BEFORE THE WEEKEND, “ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES”.

    Comment by JohnP.TrumpisnotmyPresident. — November 9, 2018 @ 4:34 pm

  6. Stick it in again … new update makes it well done ..

    Comment by Ron — November 9, 2018 @ 5:09 pm

    • Mike McMahon, yesterday: “In the Mayor race, Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft (7313 votes) lead has increased to 506 votes over Trish Spencer (6807 votes).”
      TODAY: MEA: 8862; TS: 8036 (difference of 826)
      Jim Oddie now leads by over 400 votes.

      Comment by trow125 — November 9, 2018 @ 5:20 pm

  7. New updates here: http://www.mikemcmahon.info/election18.htm#results

    Based on review of ROV data, voter turnout will likely be over 60%. Right now it is around 43%.

    For you data nerds, Ashcraft run rate with each release of result continues to climb rate. Started 36.6% with first release of the vote count and then ballot box voters gave her 43.7% of the votes. The two post election vote rates for Ashcraft stands at 44.8%.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 9, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    • So, one thing seems clear in 2018. Post election absentee ballots look a lot more like election day ballots than they do early mail in votes.

      Comment by BMac — November 9, 2018 @ 9:14 pm

  8. Can I hear an Amen! Congratulations Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft!

    https://www.eastbayexpress.com/SevenDays/archives/2018/11/09/marilyn-ezzy-ashcraft-wins-alameda-mayors-race

    Comment by Karen — November 10, 2018 @ 8:26 am

  9. That is so great. Out with the party girl and in with someone who really cares.

    Comment by Joaquin — November 10, 2018 @ 2:57 pm

  10. Latest update: as of 5 PM on 11/10 MEA now leads by 935 votes and Oddie leads Matz by 404

    Comment by trow125 — November 10, 2018 @ 5:12 pm

  11. After four releases of post election vote by mail ballots, a few trends continue. Ashcraft continues to move ahead Spencer and her lead is now over 1000 votes. Knox White continues to pull away from Daysog and is over 1250 votes.

    Oddie’s momentum has stalled out when it reached a peak of 407 votes in release two and Oddie’s lead is down to 380 over Matz.

    What is stunning is the amount of vote by mail ballots that been received as of Sunday. With 25,982 vote by mail ballots being reported as received, the voter turnout percentage for vote by mail voters is at 73%. My calculations for voter turnout for voters who go to the polls on Election Day is in the low 50s%.

    Not as pretty as Lauren’s presentation with percentages but the updated raw numbers.

    http://www.mikemcmahon.info/election18.htm#results

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 11, 2018 @ 10:24 pm


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