Blogging Bayport Alameda

November 7, 2018

Holy forking shirt

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 6:07 am

Subtitle: and now we wait.

Of the three races the one that still hangs in the balance is the race for Mayor.

Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 4.31.29 AM

But if these margins hold or the lead gets bigger for Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft we’ll need to look at the race for third place in the City Council race.   According to political numbers guru, Mike McMahon, as the ballots were counted throughout the night the lead widened for Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft but now Trish Spencer is in the exact position that Marie Gilmore was, with a sub 300 vote difference between her and her competitor.  But it’s not over, as it never is in California, because even though all the precincts have been accounted for there are a lot of outstanding ballots to be counted.  Mike McMahon thinks around 10,000 which makes sense because in 2014 there were around 21,000 votes cast in Alameda.  Right now we’re looking at a little less than 16K votes tallied.

I think though, we can safely say that — for City Council — Tony Daysog will be returning to the City Council and John Knox White may be our next Vice Mayor:

Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 4.43.34 AM

I think this particular look at the City Council race is really interesting because of the number of under votes.  I’m not sure if someone left this section blank if it’s consider two undervotes or only one (Mike McMahon??) but the number it suggests of people only electing to bullet vote for one candidate is really interesting.

Once the Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft vs Trish Spencer race is decided, the next unclear race to be determined is that for third place which is very very close.  At this time there is only a 21 vote difference between Jim Oddie and Robert Matz.  That race will go to the very end and we’ll see if the candidate who doesn’t come out on top will concede gracefully or will ask for a recount.

As a reminder, when Marie Gilmore lost to Trish Spencer with only a 120 vote difference, she did not ask for a recount, saying it was not in the best interest of the City of Alameda to do so which was classy as hell of her.

For the School Board, Gary Lym will be returning and Mia Bonta won fairly easily:

Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 4.56.46 AM

The interesting thing is how many votes Kevin “Size Matters” Jordan received.  I don’t think most people knew there was even a fourth candidate on the ballot until his rando signs started popping up or they opened up their voter guides.

And finally it looks like Measure K will go down in flames despite outspending the no campaign exponentially:

Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 4.59.24 AM

Looks like a fair number of people skipped this one too, but even if all those people had voted yes Measure K would still be losing.

So we’ll all keep an eye on this yes?  But if these results hold the new City Council will certainly be an interesting and exciting one.  With Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft moving to the Mayor’s seat, John Knox White as Vice Mayor, Tony Daysog, Malia Vella, and Jim Oddie it will probably be the most progressive leaning City Council we’ve had ever.

Tomorrow, I think I’ll touch on what a Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft win will mean in light of the huge spend on behalf of Trish Spencer that came with the yes on K campaign and what the unions sitting the Mayor’s race also means for the impact of outside spending on these races.

Oh jeez, I just remembered. There’s a City Council meeting tonight which is going to be super awkward.

Advertisements

26 Comments »

  1. I like the outcome so far. The only person I didn’t vote for was Tony Daysog. I voted for him in the past and for mayor at one time but he seems to be more of a politician than a serious candidate and seems to wobble.

    Comment by Jake — November 7, 2018 @ 6:25 am

  2. If an undervote is a chance not taken, what is an over vote? Does that mean someone named 3 instead of two?

    Comment by dave — November 7, 2018 @ 6:38 am

    • Probably. Not too many over votes, but clearly there was a subsection of people confused. This might become important if there is a recount and some of the over votes were just stray marks and not actual votes.

      Comment by Lauren Do — November 7, 2018 @ 6:53 am

      • If someone clearly chooses too many (ie not a stray mark or hanging chad) does it cancel their ballot?

        Comment by dave — November 7, 2018 @ 6:57 am

        • I think so, unless there is a way to carbon date the votes and count only the first two

          Comment by MP — November 7, 2018 @ 7:35 am

        • Yes the vote is cancelled.

          Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 7:39 am

  3. Just picture Tony Daysog, the lone vote of assholery on a new progressive council, sitting impotently behind his laptop unable to get anything done. It’s the hell he deserves.

    Comment by Rod — November 7, 2018 @ 6:43 am

    • The guy didnt spend that much and managed to run a tight race close to JKW. So he’s pretty well liked in the community. I think the better thing to do is for all to work and get along. just an opinion.

      Comment by an opinion — November 7, 2018 @ 12:10 pm

      • Remember what he was like the last time he was on the council? The fact that he is back on the council yet completely irrelevant is a beautiful thing!

        Comment by Rod — November 7, 2018 @ 1:27 pm

  4. BTW the guy we rent a room out to is 35 and this is the first election he has ever voted in. That is so great.

    Comment by Jake — November 7, 2018 @ 7:22 am

  5. Lauren: This election it appears voters much more likely to vote for two candidates for City Council then in the past. In 2014, with 6300 mail in ballots counted the under votes was 3000 votes for City Council. In 2018 with 7400 mail in ballots counted the under vote was only 1400. That trend continued for ballot box voters.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 7:49 am

  6. I am relatively confident that the overall positions will remain the same now that we have seen both the early voting and day-of poll results.
    Of course, I still remember 2014…

    Comment by Jon Spangler — November 7, 2018 @ 8:42 am

  7. Ok I have refined my projections from last night’s 2am fog. In 2014, on Election night there were 13265 votes in the Mayor’s race. This year as of last night there were 14201 votes. So that is a 7% increase. At the end of the 2014 election the Mayor race, there were a total of 20856 votes counted. So if you apply the same 7% increase to 13265 you get 22300 votes. So that is 8000 votes. With 2018 voter enthusiasm higher than 2014, I could see even vote by mail ballots counted. In addition, the new three day window for mail in ballots will more ballots. Just not sure how many.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 9:54 am

    • How it will play out this year is still up in the air, but has there been thought to changing the system so we don’t have a situation where a third person gets elected (here, we would be talking about Matz or Oddie, in the event Ashcraft is elected Mayor) to Council when voters were only allowed to cast two votes? That may be a good system, and there would also be more than one way to change it, but do you know if there has been much thought given to changing it?

      Comment by MP — November 7, 2018 @ 4:41 pm

      • Yeah, get rid of the elected Mayor position and just have a rotating Mayorship among the City Council members or have the City Council vote for Mayor within their ranks. Then you’ll never have this problem about a third place finisher getting to complete someone else’s term.

        Comment by Lauren Do — November 7, 2018 @ 4:47 pm

        • That’s one way (that’s AUSD’s system I think). Maybe it works given that the mayors main role is to chair meetings rather than exec. Something to think about.

          Comment by MP — November 7, 2018 @ 4:58 pm

  8. How is vice-mayor chosen? Whoever has the most votes during the election?

    Comment by Jennifer — November 7, 2018 @ 12:26 pm

    • Yes

      Comment by Rod — November 7, 2018 @ 1:29 pm

      • Only THIS election, or past elections as well? I believe Knox White needs to overcome Vella’s total from the last election to “unseat” her as vice mayor, but I could be wrong.

        Comment by Jason B — November 7, 2018 @ 2:26 pm

        • Well shit, I have no idea! I’ll have to go re-read the Vice City tutorial.

          Comment by Rod — November 7, 2018 @ 2:40 pm

        • highest vote for a council member in each election gets the Vice Mayor job.

          Comment by JohnP.TrumpisnotmyPresident. — November 7, 2018 @ 3:59 pm

        • The City Council selects a Vice Mayor, traditionally it’s the person from the most recent election receiving the highest number of votes. There doesn’t seem to be a reason to buck against this tradition.

          Comment by Lauren Do — November 7, 2018 @ 4:32 pm

  9. Any ideas on when we’ll get updates from the county on vote counts?

    Comment by Angela — November 7, 2018 @ 4:33 pm

  10. Updated just now: 7313 Ashcraft 6807 Spencer 3804 Mataresse

    Comment by kevisb2001 — November 8, 2018 @ 5:10 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post.

Say what you want

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.