Blogging Bayport Alameda

November 6, 2018

Open election thread

Filed under: Alameda — Lauren Do @ 6:06 am

I’m pretty done with this whole local election if I’m going to be super honest.  I tried reflecting on what I’ve had so much less energy this time around and I think it’s just from the sheer exhaustion from the national craziness that has made me so less tolerant of our local election.

Anyway, open thread, have it.  I’ll be watching Florida, Georgia, and Texas for some of the more dramatic match ups.

 

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23 Comments »

  1. For all of you who are interested in Alameda city races here is a rundown how the reporting goes.

    The polls close at 8am. Between 8:10 and 8:20 the set of results are released. These numbers are not from the precincts. They vote totals are from voters who mailed in their ballot early enough for ROV to verify their signature. In 2014, 6,353 votes were tallied in the Mayor race with the first release of totals. In that election Gilmore initially led Spencer by 35 votes.

    Then you wait. By wait I mean not minutes but around two hours. The first set of precinct results for Alameda have been released between 1015 and 1045. In 2014, the first set of results were posted 10:50pm. That night Spencer pulled ahead by 210 in the first round of results. Subsequent releases occurred at 11:20, 11:50, 12:17 and the final results from the precincts were reported at 12:44. In 2014, Spencer led Gilmore by 287 votes at the end of the evening. The total vote count in the 2014 Mayor race was 13,265. So almost 7,000 voters voted at the polls.

    The final step in the vote tabulation begins in the subsequent days when ROV then processes all of the mail in ballots that were received but not verified. In 2014, result updates began two days later and were completed 8 days later. During the updates, Spencer lead dwindled for 287 votes to a low of 58 votes before finishing 120 votes ahead. In total the ROV processed an additional 7,591 votes in the Mayor’s race.

    What does this mean? The initial results are released around 8:15 represent about 33% of the total vote. So unless the margin between two candidates is under 300 votes, those vote totals will be how the race will finish.

    Check later today around 6pm and I will publish a summary of my election guessing game.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 8:05 am

    • I guess most of Bayport readers recognize a typo when they see one. I meant 8pm for poll closure.

      Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 6:50 pm

    • Looks like the first batch of poll results are in. Are your predictions holding? Can we safely call the Measure K race?

      Comment by michonnekatana — November 6, 2018 @ 11:44 pm

  2. Thanks. When/how are the ballots placed in the special boxes like the one in front of City Hall tallied?

    Comment by MP — November 6, 2018 @ 8:38 am

    • Those are mail-in ballots, and require signature verification. The news said the boxes are emptied whenever full, which the one in front of City Hall has been once already.

      Comment by vigi — November 6, 2018 @ 9:07 am

    • They are verified and tabulated days after Election Day. Here is breakdown of how the votes went in 2014 in terms vote by mail (VBM) tallied on Election Night, people who vote at the Ballot Box and those VBM ballots tabulated after the election.

      http://www.mikemcmahon.info/election14.htm#results

      Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 1:20 pm

      • Do you expect the VBM, ballot box and, post-ballot box VBM volume to break down into approx. three equal parts, as in 2014?

        Comment by MP — November 6, 2018 @ 2:55 pm

        • It has historically been roughly in those percentages. I am predicting voter turnout to be over 65% when all of the ballots are counted. If I am correct the initial results of vote by mail should be right around 10,000 votes out a possible 47,000 registered voters.

          Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 5:27 pm

  3. If you are interested in the status of a vote by mail ballot, you can use the Alameda County Registrar’s website to track it. https://www.acvote.org/app/voterprofile

    Comment by AK — November 6, 2018 @ 11:26 am

  4. I voted just after 8:00 am today at the Veterans Memorial Building (Central at Walnut). Both sides (two precincts) were busy and almost full when I was there. A good sign for all of the races, IMHO.

    Early voting is way up in North Dakota (on the Standing Rock reservation it was up 414% over 2014 or 2016 early turnouts) and in Nevada.
    This is a good sign for DEM candidates in those two states.

    I hope Alameda’s turnout is significantly higher than it was in 2014: we have suffered from the results of that election and desperately need regime change at the top…

    Comment by Jon Spangler — November 6, 2018 @ 1:47 pm

  5. Here is the summary of the 2018 Election Guessing Game.

    A few quick observations:

    Measure F (Sales tax) looks like it is in trouble passing.

    Given the Blue nature of Alameda no real surprise on Measure K, Prop 6 and State Superintendent. However, Prop 6 and State Superintendent race will a lot closer statewide.

    After an initial first day surge of 67% guesses for Marilyn, the next few days were 50/50 between Marilyn and Trish.

    If voter turnout goes above 30,000 and Measure K is defeated I would give Marilyn a 66% chance of winning the Mayor race.

    http://www.mikemcmahon.info/2018ElectionGuessGameSummaryRecap.pdf

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 5:34 pm

    • I voted (IN YOUR POLL, not on my actual ballot) for both Trish & Measure K. I have a hard time believing that Measure K will not pass just because of the sheer amount of money spent on it and the highly deceptive mailers. I’d be happy to be proven wrong, though…

      Comment by trow125 — November 6, 2018 @ 5:59 pm

      • Sometimes all the money in the world is not enough to sell a giant lie!

        Comment by Rod — November 7, 2018 @ 9:05 am

  6. First round results show Spencer leads Ashcraft by 180 votes. Measure F is winning big while Measure K is losing. Daysog and Knox White are leading. Will have to wait to midnight to make any projections on the Mayor race. Daysog and Knox White will win City Council spots. Bonta and Lym leading in School Board race. Would take a minor miracle for McKereghan to catch Lym.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 8:54 pm

    • Wonder if McKereghan’s well-documented “snarky comments” (as reported on in the EBX) hurt her chances.

      Comment by trow125 — November 6, 2018 @ 10:46 pm

      • It did not help, But in the end Lym’s support from Labor was the difference with mailers and phone banking.

        Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 12:06 am

  7. First round of 18 precincts reporting. Spencer shrinks to 42 votes. Knox White overtakes Daysog for first place with a 189 vote gain. Matz still leads Oddie by 60 down from 80 votes.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 6, 2018 @ 11:40 pm

  8. 29 precincts reporting. Ashcraft has overtaken Spencer by 98 votes. So that is 278 vote swing by people voting at the polls. Knox White widens his lead over Daysog to 155 votes. If Ashcraft wins then the third place finisher wins election to City Council. Oddie has overtaken Matz by 86 votes.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 1:01 am

  9. 31 precincts reporting. Ashcraft lead now up 131. Knox White up to 215 lead over Daysog. Oddie lead increases to 119.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 1:25 am

  10. 46 precincts reporting. Election Night comes to the end. In the Mayor’s race, Spencer started the evening with a 180 vote lead over Ashcraft. At the end of night, Ashcraft now leads Spencer by 213 votes, 393 vote swing. In the City Council race, Daysog led Knox White by 156 votes at the start of the evening. By the end of the evening, Knox White led Daysog by 320 votes, a 476 vote swing. In the battle for third place (only important if Ashcraft wins the Mayor race, Matz led Oddie by 81. By the end of the evening, Oddie led Matz by 21 votes, a 102 vote swing. In School Board race Bonta and Lym won handily. Measure F passed and Measure K failed. One final note: THE RACES ARE NOT OVER. I am guessing there will be at least 10,000 votes to be counted in the coming days. Stay tuned.

    Comment by Mike McMahon — November 7, 2018 @ 2:24 am

  11. Anyone have a guess/knowledge of when ROV might be updating again?

    Comment by Gaylon — November 7, 2018 @ 10:26 am

    • It’s updated now. 7313 Ashcraft 6807 Spencer 3804 Matarrese.

      Comment by kevisb2001 — November 8, 2018 @ 5:08 pm


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