Blogging Bayport Alameda

February 25, 2008

I almost didn’t sign the “optional” sign in sheet!

Filed under: Alameda, Alameda Point, Development, Measure A, Transportation — Tags: — Lauren Do @ 6:54 am

Long post ahead, you’ve been warned. 

By the time I arrived at the Kofman Auditorium, a tad bit late, but of course with events like this, things rarely start on time.   I was puzzled by the the number of tables and displays that were lining the entrance way to the actual theater itself.   Because I thought I was late I quickly walked by to get into the theater since I had brought my lap top to take notes and needed to find a place to plug in.   Unfortunately I had neglected to bring my extension cord and so my only options were to sit in the way front or the way back.   At that point I decided to abandon taking notes during the event and opted to rely on the tape recorder I brought.

The turnout was pretty small, but considering how poorly the event was advertised, I’m not really surprised.  Before the event starts, Don Roberts marches in and heads straight to the front of the auditorium and begins to “film” the crowd.   Obviously he will be showing this on this week’s show and declaring how small the turnout was.   After filming he promptly left, whether he came back, I’m not sure.

The event starts with Councilmember Lena Tam kicking off the event, welcoming everyone etc… etc… and then she introduced Woody Minor.

Woody Minor presentation

I’ve never seen the Woody Minor presentation before and I understand that this was just a truncated version that we were exposed to.   Here’s the thing though, after watching the presentation I am really puzzled as to how anyone can characterize it as a neutral presentation.  This is not to pass judgment on the quality of the materials presented because there is no doubt that he knows his history of Alameda and Measure A, but this presentation was anything but heavily biased.  At one point I expected huge ominous thunderclaps to echo across the theater every time he said “developer” or “Utah Construction.”  

For those who have not seen the presentation, Woody M. spends a lot of time waxing nostalgic about Alameda when it was all trees, Alameda when it was all farm land, Alameda before it was filled in, Alameda when it was inhabited by folks who live in mud huts, etc…etc…  Okay, so not the mud hut thing, but you get the idea.   He talked a lot about the population growth in the 1900s, but decided to not share the context of the population boom in the rest of the Bay Area, but I understand, time limitations and all. 

What was very interesting was the more thorough explanation of what ended up leading up to the passage of Measure A.   Rampant development plans between the Utah Construction plans to build out Bay Farm Island, Del Monte’s plans to build out the Northern Waterfront area, and of course coupled with the tear down of Victorians to build apartment buildings makes the desire for something like Measure A a lot more understandable.   

Hansom Hom presentation

This was the Legislative History of Measure A, which was informative, but I think could have used some more context as well.    Such as what led up to the City Council deciding to “clarify” Measure A by adding the 2000 sq ft per unit amendment on the ballot.  Also a more in-depth analysis about the Clayton Guyton settlement agreement would have been interesting.  I have always found it notable that the City chose to settle in this case rather than to see if Measure A could stand up to judicial scrutiny.  

Panel 1, Benefits and Limitations of Measure A on building housing in Alameda

Moderated by Lee Harris, this panel had its high moments.   A few things I learned from listening to the panel, moderator, and answers to questions from the audience, of course this is all paraphrasing, don’t quote any of the panelists on anything:

  • Denise Brady is a realtor;
  • Measure A, according to everyone who was not Denise B., was probably a good reaction to what was happening in the 70s, but may not be the best tool moving forward today.   Also with current government regulations that exist today: CEQA, Tideland trusts, etc… what was happening in the late 60s early 70s in Alameda would not be possible today;
  • Measure A is a “blunt instrument” that may not accomplish what citizens would like future large scale development to look like;
  • Measure A is “easy” to understand and therefore more easily embraced than other tools that would produce results more in line with people’s vision of Alameda;
  • Denise B. is a realtor, did you know that?
  • Reuse of existing historic industrial buildings is severely limited under Measure A;
  • The much touted “Density Bonus” is an equally blunt instrument that applied on top of another blunt instrument (Measure A) would definitely not make anyone happy.

Major highlights:

  • David Burton (Alameda resident by the way) broaching the topic of Form Based Codes as possible tool moving forward.   Form based codes would regulate not lot size or limit the housing type available to build, but would rather dictate the type of building (height, massing, setback, etc…etc…) that could be built in an area which would allow for a much more predictable type of landscape.    But Form Based Code and other tools like it are so much more difficult to understand than Measure A.
  • Moving forward it is important for there to be a conversation about what it is that the community expects from development moving forward.

Of course there were some low points as well, one was Denise B. proclaiming that not only was Alameda the fourth most dense city in Alameda County (a “statistic” quoted by Woody Minor earlier) it was actually the second most dense city in Alameda County, the second — according to Denise B. — after Emeryville.  Of course, we all know, that’s simply not true.  I guess that when Denise B. was saying we are second after Emeryville, she simply doesn’t consider either Berkeley or Albany — not to mention all the other various census designated places (CDP) — as “Alameda County.”   I think this is the one time that I almost yelled out “Not true!!”  In fact, I think might have, I’ll have to check my tape recording.

Panel 2, How does Measure A affect auto use and transit options in Alameda?

Moderated by Judge Richard Bartalini, who had a very different moderating style than Lee H.  It reminded me a little of the McLaughlin Group, only without the funny nicknames for the panelists.  Judge Bartalini did a pre-smack down reminding everyone that this was informational only and not advocacy.   At first Judge Bartalini started calling folks in the order they were seated on the panel (Stuart Cohen, John Ellis, David Howard, Brian Canepa) and I started feeling really bad for Brian Canepa since he had to debunk twice whatever David H. was posing as an “answer.”   Then Judge Bartalini started switching it up a little and calling folks out of order, probably to keep them all on their toes.  

Basically what we got from one of the panelists, you know who, right?   Was a rehash of stuff we have seen ad nauseum on Alameda Daily News.   Such as (paraphrasing) ”WRT Soloman says that we only need 12-15 du/ac for minimum transit service and Measure A provides for 20 du/ac, what else is needed?”  To which Brian C. had to respond that sure it may be the minimum needed but at best that would provide services frequency of every 30 minutes (sound familiar to some bus riders?), but for there to be good transit service 15 minute wait would be best and 10 would be optimal.

Some interesting things came up, one was about the need to possible decouple parking requirement from any future residential building.   As it stands now, parking costs are rolled into the price of housing, decoupling that would do a few things, one would be to reduce the price of housing and provide less incentive for people to own multiple cars if it is unnecessary.   One speaker later felt as though this was “penalizing” drivers, or one could see it as making the real cost of parking – and therefore driving — evident.  

Then came the questions, the first speaker was Art Lipow who decided to use the opportunity to begin a speech about how living next to the seven unit buildings on San Antonio (on the the examples of pre-Measure A multifamily housing that is in line with the feel of the neighborhood) wasn’t all that great and if he lived next to more buildings like that it would be like living in “hell.”   He also talked about how he had lived all over the world (London, New York, etc…) and that he has a love affair with Alameda.   Even after being asked directly by Judge Bartalini if he actually had a question, he simply kept going.  Finally, he decided to get on with his question, which was clearly a plant by one of the panelists because we’ve all heard this one before right?  Plus, after speaking extemporaneously for a good while he needed to refer to a sheet a paper to “ask” his question.    The question was about how would low income people with families who needed cars get around?  Sound familiar?   Of course and who just happened to answer first and who just happened to have a quote at the ready about the Working Wheels program in Seattle, reading off a testimonial from a mother with kids who talked about her car just being the absolute best thing since sliced bread since her work required her to have reliable transportation. 

To which Judge Bartalini replied, “I thought we were trying to get people out of their cars.”

Then we of course get the Bay Area answer to the question from Stuart C. who remind us all that there are varying levels within the blanket “low income.”  Something along the lines of 50% of low income folks have cars, and that when we talk about affordable housing that these are often folks that are not people that are one week off of welfare, but are teachers, civil servants, etc…   He also mentioned that in affordable housing developments, car sharing has been successful because folks don’t have to have the burden and cost of owning cars, yet always have access to it when needed.   Brian C. also mentioned that there is a federal program that assists with low-income car ownership tied to certain jobs.

And then what conversation in Alameda would be complete without the issue of ingress and egress where people started getting all over Stuart C. back for suggesting that even if the tubes are congested that the other bridges could also provide relief.   To which some people starting shouting, “It’s takes an hour to get across the bridges!”  Which is simply ridiculous.  Of course they were probably trying to convey that when there is a major accident or say a fire which shuts down traffic, yes, it may take a bit longer to get in and out of Alameda.   Some guy sitting behind me upon hearing all the complaints from the audience about traffic shouted out “Because you are all in your cars!”  To which, I could not disagree.

Conclusion

So was it worth spending a substantial portion of my day?   Hard to say.   I probably would have gotten the same experience had I simply watched at home from the web cast.   It was nice seeing some of the bright shining faces, but of course there was always the fear that I might get slugged by someone I might not have been all that complimentary of in the past.   Was the information valuable?  I think so.   I hope that folks that are much less familiar with the issue will take the time to watch, I think much could be learned and I think that there are still many more discussions that need to take place around what it is that people want to see for the future of Alameda and how that can be accomplished.

Oh and I almost forgot, I can’t remember if this was said during the transportation panel questions or during the open comments to the Planning Board, but Art L. stood up to ominously suggest that the city as whole is mad as hell and they’re not going to take it and that a change may be coming in the very near future.   I can only assume this means that we should be seeing a what…slate of two for the next election?   I can’t wait to see who is offered up as a candidate.

Does anyone want to pull together a small collection to buy Alameda Daily News a dictionary?   Seriously.  

52 Comments »

  1. “Denise Brady is a realtor”

    It’s interesting how those who say they want to promote discussion of Measure A often deride anyone who doesn’t represent their view in said discussion. I guess the I’m O.K.-You’re O.K.-They’re not O.K. remains as powerful a dynamic as ever.

    Comment by Susan — February 25, 2008 @ 7:57 am

  2. It wasn’t deriding her, it was pointing out that every statement made by Denise Brady was prefaced with “I’m a realtor.” No one else constantly reminded us of their profession prior to making statement.

    Comment by Lauren Do — February 25, 2008 @ 7:58 am

  3. Granted this is one person’s opinion, but it still made for some interesting reading:

    Suburbia’s march to oblivion

    … “the pendulum swinging back toward urban living,” thanks to a set of economic, social, and demographic trends.

    The result, he says, could be that low-density suburbs “may become what inner cities became in the 1960’s and 1970’s — slums characterized by poverty, crime, and decay.”

    Meanwhile, he writes, demand for “urban living” will continue apace. Although the mortgage squeeze may slow development of lofts and condominiums in the central cities and “walkable” towns and suburbs, “it will surely continue.”

    Comment by alameda — February 25, 2008 @ 8:03 am

  4. # 3

    Highly recommend Christopher B. Leinberger’s piece, “The Next Slum”, referenced above in the March 08 issue of The Atlantic. Pull quote: “The subprime crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Fundamental changes in American life may turn today’s McMansions into tomorrow’s tenements”.

    Hoping not to sound like a shill for the mag but there’s also an apropo article in the same issue written by Sandra Tsing Loh titled, “Tales Out of School”. Pull quote: “How a pushy, Type A mother stopped reading Jonathan Kozol and learned to love the public schools”. Great piece. Writing style reminds me of someone above..

    Comment by Jack Richard — February 25, 2008 @ 8:41 am

  5. Been to Antioch lately?

    Comment by MarkD — February 25, 2008 @ 9:15 am

  6. Lauren,

    Sorry to have misinterpreted. Denise is someone I know (and like) in a context that has nothing to do with Measure A; guess that made me overly sensitive.

    Regards,
    Susan

    Comment by Susan — February 25, 2008 @ 9:18 am

  7. That Christopher Leinberge was interesting, but I’m not sure if I agree that there’s simply going to be abandonment of suburban areas for urban. True- a lot of baby boomers are moving back to urban areas that were in absolutely crappy condition for decades, but this latest housing bubble, credit problems, and the general collapse of the US debt system that has fueled the economy for over a decade means change on all fronts.

    I’m fully expecting a complete and total transformation in consumer tastes. Looking back at what forms of housing was popular during the boom- Massive Mcmansions and way bigger homes than people actually need- even those with kids who ‘think’ they need bigger, I’d compare these to some of the large gas-guzzling cars in the 70’s before the oil embargo hit. I see homes like these become essentially worthless as the trend turns more towards smaller, more manageable homes with less energy and mortgage cost requirements.

    Get ready for the return of the starter and small house.

    Comment by edvard — February 25, 2008 @ 9:28 am

  8. Denise Brady is also a leader of the Alameda Architectural Society. She struck me as a nice person the times I spoke with her. Open minded, too: she was one of the few Measure A supporters who (at least told me that she) liked my idea for dwelling credits as a possible amendment to Measure A.

    Comment by Mike Rich — February 25, 2008 @ 9:30 am

  9. Not just Antioch, has anyone see the desolated community of Mountain House NW of Tracy. Two occupied houses per block. How did density become a bad word? Density creates neighborhoods and services.

    Comment by Sideline — February 25, 2008 @ 9:46 am

  10. I’m not so sure it’s a size thing, I think the move is towards urban-(village)-like living. walkable, busy streets, and services that don’t require a 20min drive.How small or how big depends on your income.People with money will generally want bigger and better than people without. Plus, by the time this new “way of life” takes a strong hold, wich probably wont be for a few more years, we’ll be dealing with a different housing market.

    Comment by MarkD — February 25, 2008 @ 10:03 am

  11. #10–

    For those intent on having housing at Alameda Point:

    Please visit Marina Village, which is a post Measure A development. It is a walkable neighborhood, close to a shopping strip. Marina Village is over near the Webster Tube.

    Several Marina Village type of various sizes could be built at Alameda Point creating neighborhoods. Build some larger units, some smaller units. Some on two levels, some on one level.

    Build them on the most stable land out there. Place some conveniently close to the ferry landing.

    Build retail areas into the neighborhoods.

    As I understand it, Measure A allows residential above commercial places, so build some retail with residential above.

    Plan streets so people can walk and ride their bikes from neighborhood to neighborhood, to the ferry, and to bus stops.

    There you have it. Skip all the fuss and arguing about Measure A.
    Just use Marina Village as a model starting point.

    Comment by R M — February 25, 2008 @ 10:26 am

  12. The urban living/ walkable streets, etc etc is a nice thought but realistically, 99.9% of the country doesn’t live like this. The trend has been to move away from that model. Of course places like Alameda might qualify, but the high cost of living heavily outweighs that aspect.

    The trend to go small will be less about idealized living and more from financial necessity. Rich people weren’t the only people who bought ” Big”. Many who shouldn’t have did so as well, hence the problems we have now. In most cases, bigger doesn’t always mean better anyway since most large homes I seem to look at are poorly constructed or built using cheap materials.

    People need to get out of their heads that just because they’re married with kids doesn’t mean they MUST have a huge house for the kiddies. People in the not so distant past did perfectly fine with 7-800 sq foot houses. So no- nobody HAS to have a 3,000 foot house to ensure that their kids have a better childhood.

    This opens up a secondary, much larger issue which is the development of entirely new portions of the country that offer better living standards without the horrible commutes people in overpriced regions tend to deal with. The youngest cities in the country also happen to be drastically more affordable and offer a wider assortment of housing types, which in many ways accomplished the sort of Utopian ideas of a “mixed income” community people plan for here. These areas will change the face of the country. They will become the future competitors to the older urban areas, and they will foster new minds with new ideas.

    It’ll be interesting to see. One thing is certain: The bubble corrupted the American Dream. We need a humbling experience so that housing is viewed as something you live in and not something to invest or pay out the nose for. We must bring back community stability or suffer the consequences.

    Comment by edvard — February 25, 2008 @ 11:51 am

  13. @ R M
    For ferries or retail to work you need enough people to use them. To do that you need people, lots of them. “Old Alameda” has densities of up to 100+ units an acre, no high-rise, no ugly. Look at the displays for the WRT workshop. Adding a couple of ranch houses around a sprawl park-and-shop will never create enough demand to support frequent transit or business for the retail.

    Thousands of homes are needed. Lots of low-rise buildings (4-5 stories) with retail along important streets and corners can work. Especially if only limited space is devoted to parking (allowing shorter buildings). A three car family in sprawlville will drive all over to shop, but a one car family in walkable-town will use the corner store at lot more. A no-car (by choice) family (except car-sharing) will use the corner store even more in exchange for avoiding the burden of car ownership. And they use/waste no land for parking spaces, meaning more space housing and/or green space. Virtuous circle! :)

    Comment by No Skin in the Game — February 25, 2008 @ 12:22 pm

  14. Everytime I’ve gone to visit Marina village it’s been kind of a ghost town. Not so sure I would want more of that.

    I’m not sure what your point is edvard . . .You don’t believe/care for the urban lifestyle but you also don’t like the suburban excess. So what you want is suburban sprawl with small homes? That might help affordability but absolutely nothing else.
    I’m gonna go ahead and guess your are not a homeowner?If so, that’s fine and i can see why affordable housing is your agenda, but there are others. I don’t know maybe you’re right and this really is the end of “the American dream” and living lavishily and beyond one’s means, but things have been bad before, worse and like all cycles things turn around time and time again, and through time, we have only become over more wealthy and even bigger consumers.

    Comment by MarkD — February 25, 2008 @ 12:33 pm

  15. #14 “I’m not sure what your point is edvard . . .You don’t believe/care for the urban lifestyle but you also don’t like the suburban excess. So what you want is suburban sprawl with small homes? That might help affordability but absolutely nothing else.”

    There is something betwixt the two;”New Suburbanism”, if you will. Suburbs can accomplish some of New Urbanism’s goals via creating “town” centers, greater development near the center, creating centralized venues for culture, entertainment, religion and commerce and job creation.

    I enjoyed the below report and think it provides an interesting counterpoint to “The Next Slum?” article.

    The New Suburbanism: A Realist’s Guide to the American Future
    http://www.joelkotkin.com/Urban_Affairs/The%20New%20Suburbanism.pdf

    Comment by Susan — February 25, 2008 @ 1:06 pm

  16. Interesting read, which is more or less what I meant by “urban-(village)-like living” in #10 Susan. I think this would be more in line for Almeda but . . .not for all, I’m sure. Still neither of the examples given are at all close to affordable.I’m not sure #12 is convinced such a communitty is possible so this still doens’t answer my question in #14.

    Comment by MarkD — February 25, 2008 @ 1:39 pm

  17. Susan’s #15 link is very interesting in that a recent (if you consider Aug 2007 recent) critique of Joel Kotkin mentioned his work on that very report, highlights:

    …A few years ago, partly as a marketing ploy for a respected planning firm he was working with at the time, Kotkin tried to stake out some ground in the whole New Urbanism/smart growth debate by coining the term “New Suburbanism”. When pressed about what he meant, Kotkin wrote in an article on Planetizen that he envisioned a future involving “a heavily wired ‘archipelago of villages,’ with relatively compact and economically self-sufficient communities spread across our landscape,”…

    There’s nothing here for even the most passionate New Urbanist to disagree with. In describing New Suburbanism, Kotkin was just setting himself up up as a 21st Century Ebenezer Howard…This is no different than most New Urbanists and smart growthers, who understand that most cities are polycentric and that development must be concentrated into a series of villages…

    Comment by Lauren Do — February 25, 2008 @ 1:51 pm

  18. Mark,Indeed I’m a renter, so perhaps my views are skewed towards the other side of the issue. Right now the biggest problem is affordability. Period. You go out and ask just about anyone my age or even older who doesn’t own and they’ll give you the same answer which is that prices are too high and have been for at least 5 years. We’re only too happy to oblige the downturn and see the prices become more inline with incomes. As it is now, if you buy a Alameda median home, then you’d better be making at least 250k a year, which I assure you most who did buy do not.

    Secondly, perhaps there’s more to look at beyond the old mainstays of how to make urban areas work. I’ve driven across the country twice, and both times I’ve been amazed that roughly 98% of the country is completely vacant. Indeed- the term “flyover land” is usually associated with undesirable and unfitting. But the truth is that much of why people live crammed on the coasts is the historic timeline associated with them, when cities had to be built near open water for commerce and transportation.

    We have had the means to work and live wireless and without the need for a central office for over a decade. That people must still drive to an office and communicate with one another via their computers is absolutely nonsensical. In other words, I am willing to bet that most people who live in large metro areas do so for their jobs that pay them more, which in turn becomes meaningless since everyone else does the same… which leads to overpopulation, congestion, fierce competition for land and housing, and political stagnation.

    So instead of focusing all efforts on trying to make increasingly older urban areas work… why not also investigate the idea of detached independent smaller metro/rural living? In other words- more efficiently utilize the land we have around us instead of clinging to small clumps on the coasts? It’s just an idea.

    Comment by edvard — February 25, 2008 @ 2:25 pm

  19. Let me just say that if by calling this the New Suburbanism we can agree on some of these designs, I think there’s a lot of hope here for common ground.

    Looking at the Joel Kotkin article, I found this photo to be interesting as it includes a civic plaza surrounded by 5-6 story apartment buildings over retail. It would appear that Mr. Kotkin is not pushing the merits of Measure A compliant suburban design.

    Comment by Johnknoxwhite — February 25, 2008 @ 3:16 pm

  20. IF the anti-MA’ers say they just want to replicate ‘old Alameda’ at the Point; How come we don’t have that bus going by every 10 minutes for all of ‘old Alameda’?

    MA may be a “blunt tool” but it is effective, and it is in the hands of the people, not the politicians. Don’t expect us to give up our working tool for empty promises, -we have already learned that lesson. High density won’t necessarily bring mass transit improvement, certainly not rapid mass transit. High density will not bring lower home prices to Alameda any more than it did to other large BA cities.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 25, 2008 @ 4:04 pm

  21. I guess if I were to say one thing further about “New Urbanism”, is that I can’t think of any -especially in California- that in my mind met the intentions of what new urbanism is supposed to connotate. Of all the developments I’ve seen come to fruition and were supposed to have mixed income level housing, almost all of these wound up either having the bare minimum requirement “below market rate” units in which those who wanted them had to get on some sort of lottery, or the “mixed income” housing wound up being mixed allright… as in 800k for the ‘cheap’ models and 1.5 million for the homes with all the trimmins’.

    I think the definition of new urbanism needs to be reworked. Again- I firmly believe that none of the promises that new urbanism brings means anything unless those developments provide real and sustainable housing for people making living wages. Make it as pretty as you want, put in all the little sidewalks and fancy stores you care to. Make it as bicycle friendly as it need be. But if the 3rd grade teacher down the street can’t afford it, then this is hardly what I would call anything other than some chi-chi development for the wealthy who want to pretend they live in some make-believe town.

    Comment by edvard — February 25, 2008 @ 4:07 pm

  22. Edvard, I want to agree with you, really, I do. My point is I wouldn’t disregard critical planning and the possibility of a more urban village way of life just because I may not be able to buy the house of my dreams just yet. Affordability seems to have much more to do with public/fiscal policy than say building or planning design.

    Comment by MarkD — February 25, 2008 @ 5:02 pm

  23. #20, yeah, it’s as effective as blunt to gets. It did certain things well, like stopping the Victorian destruction, but who is to say that a more refined tool couldn’t have done even that better, plus have provided other options.

    It is easy to second guess any action after the fact and I don’t actually fault anybody who pushed for MA’s passage. But that doesn’t mean we have to treat it like it was passed to Chuck Corrica one stormy night on Mount Trashmore, on a couple of stone tablets. I think we could change it without burning in hell, even if Art Lipow would think he had died and gone to hell.

    MA could be more fine tuned in a number of directions, but I guess only over the dead bodies of various zealots. And that’s not some kind of threat. I’m just thinking of Charlton Heston speaking at the NRA convention in “Bowling for Columbine”: Something about prying his gun from his “cold dead hands”.

    Comment by Mark I — February 25, 2008 @ 5:31 pm

  24. #23 typo, should read “as effective as a blunt tool gets”

    Comment by Mark I — February 25, 2008 @ 5:31 pm

  25. Measure A really limits housing types, and one of the take-home messages from the morning panel was the need to have choices to meet the housing needs of a life cycle (single, couple with kids, elderly). Alameda is a part of the Bay Area, and we can’t be completely insulated from the housing needs of the area.

    Marina Village would not be a good model for Alameda Point. Access to public transit is not good at Marina Village and most of the residents don’t work at the commerical/office buildings nearby. There is no sense of community. It may be the model of suburbanism. But when I last checked, over half of the commercial space at Marina Village is vacant, and it is still very auto-centric.

    Comment by S M — February 25, 2008 @ 5:47 pm

  26. Marina Village has half-hourly service from Line 19, but much of the ridership comes from the rest of the route, which runs through denser neighborhoods. Marina Village used to have its own bus line (Line 42), and it was only able to support a small number of commute-hour-only trips, with no mid-day, evening, or weekend service.

    By contrast, AC Transit Line 51, which covers a large swath of traditionally planned “old Alameda,” comes every 8 minutes at peak times. Between approximately 6 AM and 8 PM weekdays, there is never more than 15 minutes scheduled between buses. Service is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Even on evenings and weekends, most service is at a 20-minute frequency.

    Line 51 is one of AC Transit’s busiest. The buses crossing the Alameda-Oakland border are almost always full at peak times, and often at non-peak times as well. Every 8 minutes during rush hour, one of those full buses moves as many people through the tube as a line of single-occupant cars three blocks long!

    Comment by Michael Krueger — February 25, 2008 @ 6:53 pm

  27. “MA - the hammer that built Alameda’s family-friendly reputation.” (and I don’t see a need to get our hammer sharpened.)

    I don’t think MA is as limited as what the developers bring to the planning Board.

    SM - You are correct that Alameda is part of the Bay Area, but Alameda cannot be identical to every part of the BA.

    We have a wide spectrum of dwelling styles. If people want a ‘new urbanism’ or any other -ism, it can be found in the BA. Not everything will be on this island. People do have to leave to meet some of their needs, be that a Nordstrom or a walk in the woods.

    MK- With the possible exception of a handful of fanatics Alamedans feel our island would be much, much worse if the whole city had the same density as the highest blocks of Alameda. The 51 may be a very useful line, but it seems to run only one “e-w” corridor. If the density of Alameda only provides for service rated between dismal to barely basic for most of the island, why throw trust at AC transit as budgets are crashing?

    Better to change fuels than add inconvenience. Did you hear Virgin Air flew a jumbo airliner trans-pacific on vegi-oil?

    With the proper motivation for innovation we do not have to sacrifice more of our freedoms for the environment.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 25, 2008 @ 8:54 pm

  28. As is almost always the case with Virgin Airlines, this looks more like a publicity stunt.

    http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/02/virgin-atlantic.html

    Comment by alameda — February 25, 2008 @ 9:54 pm

  29. Measure A, the hammer which can pound any shaped housing need through Dave Kirwin’s single family home round hole.

    #28, funny you should counter DK’s comment with this Virgin Airways thing. Any chance you were you watching DK’s doppelganger Glen Beck on CNN last night? He was pooh-poohing Virgin Air lines too, and whining about how, if elected, Obama is going to smother us with government bureaucracy to combat global warming, which will inhibit our sacred free market, the real savior of all things red white and blue (and green…. like money not the environment).

    MA is the “invisible hand” which magically brings perfect balance to Alameda’s housing needs.

    It’s ironic that in the past it was corporate monopoly like GM and “visionaries” like Robert Moses who conspired to tear out great public transit systems and replace them with auto infrastructure which, through redevelopment, among other mechanisms, sliced communities asunder and literally paved the way for wrecking many great walkable urban neighborhoods. And from that suburban boom, housing juggernauts like K&B were born.

    Comment by Mark I — February 26, 2008 @ 7:31 am

  30. Regardless of whatever type of housing gets built in Alameda or the Bay Area for that matter, The issue of restrictive development needs to be carefully re-examined. It is completely and utterly pointless in my mind to consider developing housing that will automatically have an additional 30-40% tacked on just to appease these restrictions.

    I read an interesting study the other day that I think some of you should read. It’s quiet long (33 pages) but in my opinion hits the nail on the head ( since we’re using the hammer analogy) and in many ways shows why restrictive measures that prevent growth in the long term cause damage and instability to the communities those who passed them so vigilantly try to protect. I make no bones about it: One of the reasons that millions of dollars was cut from the school system was because of out of control housing prices which the state was relying on as a bellwether… prices which were high for none other than the restrictive laws that hampered growth and limited the supply.

    An excerpt from the study is as follows:

    ” Other larger scale studies are regional, such as Katz and Rosen’s (1987), who analyze 85
    cities in the San Francisco Bay area. They find that the selling price of houses increased between
    17-38 percent in communities with growth control measures. Levine (1999) expand Katz and
    Rosen’s approach to 490 Californian cities and 18 different land use measures, and reports that
    land use restrictions “displaced new construction, particularly rental housing, possibly
    exacerbating the expansion of the metropolitan areas into the interiors of the state.” Pollakowski
    and Wachter (1990) focus on 17 zoning jurisdictions in Montgomery County, Maryland, over a
    period of 8 years and found that a 10 percent increase in their zoning restriction index increased
    their housing price index by 27 percent. Interestingly, they also provided the first evidence of
    spatial externalities associated with regulations: housing prices are shown to rise when the
    restrictiveness of zoning measures in adjacent jurisdictions increased.”

    Read the whole thing here:
    http://depts.washington.edu/teclass/landuse/housing_020408.pdf

    Author: Theo S. Eicher

    Comment by edvard — February 26, 2008 @ 7:39 am

  31. Funny how we begin to believe euphemisms like “Alameda’s housing needs.” Truth is WE don’t really NEED housing in Alameda, do we? It is others, mostly non-Alamedans who WANT more housing built in Alameda. It is not our need.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 26, 2008 @ 9:20 am

  32. “One of the reasons that millions of dollars was cut from the school system was because of out of control housing prices which the state was relying on as a bellwether… prices which were high for none other than the restrictive laws that hampered growth and limited the supply”

    Please explain how high home prices reduced the amount of State tax revenue?

    Prices were high because of questionable home valuation and lending practices and irresponsible borrowers as well as lenders. There have always been growing numbers of built dwellings, the bubble was not a ’supply’ issue.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 26, 2008 @ 9:33 am

  33. Here’s a very simple question for you DK. If you today, with your income, afford the median priced Alameda home? I’m rather curious. If so- well congratulations because you must be making close to three and a half times the city family median income.

    If not, then perhaps put yourself into the shoes of the roughly 80% of inhabitants who make less than required to purchase in this city. Perhaps you’d begin to get the drift and comprehend precisely some of us are now challenging some of the reasons why prices are too high and have been cycling through a destructive boom and bust cycle.

    To answer your question about the millions of dollars cut from schools,public works, and so on, the answer is extremely simple: The state gets an enormous amount of it’s revenue from property tax. Most state governments create budgets from current and often future income models of which- as mentioned- comes in a large part from property taxes.

    Since California has one of the most rapidly decelerating property markets in the country, the fallout from this is immediate: billions of dollars vaporizing from the state’s income from lack of property values. As mentioned- often times states will count on future income, which in itself might be a flawed systematic approach, but regardless, this alteration in funding is a direct result of the housing market.

    That brings me back to the intent of my post, which is that as pointed out by the study indicates that as much as an additional 30-40% of the current value of many metro areas is created by restrictive measures. MA is the perfect example of such.Value that often times isn’t attached to real economic fundamentals and none other than restricted supply. That isn’t a healthy balance at all.

    Prices here became so severe that families put themselves at pronounced financial risk, which as you correctly pointed out was only encouraged by lending agencies and banks that sold risk, which in turn wound up fluffing up the values even more, which in turn resulted in the crash

    … which means property values will likely come back to pre-subprime levels, or an additional 20-30% in declines….

    which means a large chunk of taxable property value for the state………

    which means less income for things like public works- and schools.

    whew! Anyhow, this is nothing more than a simple cause and effect: try and lock people out by creating restrictive measures and incredibly, people will put themselves into the poorhouse to do so, which in turn usually creates disastrous financial results.

    I for one am not surprised that any of this happened or will continue to do so. The question is what do you think we should do about it to prevent it from happening? Is Measure A really in the best interest of preserving stability? You already know my answer, but I’d love to know yours.

    Comment by edvard — February 26, 2008 @ 11:16 am

  34. Edvard, you and poguemahone made certain assumptions concerning property taxes and other state taxes last January, which were refuted.

    Re: #51 & #142
    My assumption in #51 was totaly wrong. I emailed Dr. Kirst at Stanford for clarification and he kindly responded.-

    Income taxes are the main component in causing
    the dramatic changes in state revenue. It is very
    progressive in rates and has huge capital gains
    effects. In 2001 state income taxes went up 24
    billion just because of capital gains. It is the
    source we must rely on for growth or adjust to in
    economic decline. The property tax in Ca is
    essentially a statewide tax collected locally.
    The rate is fixed and capped at 1% by prop 13.
    Other states raise and use their property taxes
    locally for schools. In economic downturns they
    raise local property taxes to offset state
    declines in other taxes like income taxes. Sales
    taxes tend to go up and down slightly with the
    economy, but are relatively stable compared to
    income taxes. So the annual state budget changes
    are driven by the income tax volatility like this
    year. Property taxes are relatively stable as
    well ,because house value increases are capped at
    2% by prop 13, and localities can raise very
    little money through parcel taxes. It is complex,
    but state income taxes are the main driver of
    changes in state revenue in Ca , while property
    taxes are constrained by prop 13 and lack of
    local control on rates and rises from increased house value.

    Mike Kirst

    Comment by poguemahone — January 30, 2008 @ 12:47 pm

    Comment by Jack Richard — February 26, 2008 @ 12:20 pm

  35. #29, noooo … I can’t stand Glenn Beck and his pompous posturing!!!

    Comment by alameda — February 26, 2008 @ 12:27 pm

  36. Jack, the vital part of that report you mentioned as refuting the idea that property tax and state budget shortfalls aren’t intertwined is what happens when home sales either slow or halt. This has clearly happened in California and the Bay Area in particular. As mentioned, the support for home sales in the area was only enabled by subprime and liberally used jumbo loans. These are no longer available and hence the legs have been cut out from under the real estate market with the results being that home sales have almost stalled out completely.

    When that happens, the state loses property tax. As mentioned, California just like most other states counts on future home sales and the subsequent taxes that come afterwards. Tax that they can no longer count on or get. So the results are the same, which is a massive budget shortfall.

    California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida all top the list followed by New York, MA, and MI. All states with severe property sales problems and the majority with values that escaped fundamentals.CA alone now has a 14.5 Billion dollar deficit, of which has grossly accelerated since last year when the housing market began to tank.

    Honestly, I really don’t care. In fact, I’m rather glad because what will come out of the destruction will be more affordable homes. So bring it on. Let it crash. I can wait.

    Comment by edvard — February 26, 2008 @ 2:57 pm

  37. Dear edvard,

    Currenet weakness notwithstanding, Bay Area homes will never be as cheap as Tennessee homes.

    Signed,

    Reality

    Comment by dave — February 26, 2008 @ 3:17 pm

  38. From the Legislative Analyst’s Office November 2002

    “Stock Market Collapse a Key Factor. As we have indicated in previous reports, the state has faced a large and ongoing imbalance between revenues California’s Fiscal Outlook 2 Legislative Analyst’s Office and expenditures since the stock market bubble burst and tax revenues fell by over $10 billion in
    2001-02. The dramatic impact of the stock market decline indicates that tax revenues peaked
    at $17 billion in 2000-01, but fell abruptly following the stock market decline— to under $6 billion in
    2001-02. This unprecedented 66 percent decline is the key factor behind the $10-plus billion annual
    mismatch between revenues and expenditure.”

    From the same report

    “INDIVIDUAL REVENUE SOURCES

    Personal Income Tax after its historic 25 percent plunge (from $44.6 billion to $33.4 billion) between 2000-01 and 2001-02, we project that PIT receipts will increase modestly to $34.5 billion in 2002-03 and further to $36.4 billion in 2003-04. Over the longer term, we forecast that PIT receipts will increase at an average
    annual rate of 9.6 percent between 2003-04 and 2007-8, reaching $52.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.”

    You’ll notice that in 2002 the California Personal Income Tax was projected to be $52.5 billion in 2007-8. The actual tax figure for 2006-7 was $51,943 billion and 2007-8 is expected to meet the projection of $52.5 billion that was forecast back in 2002. Personal income tax is the state’s single largest revenue source (54.9%)

    Clearly, the residue from bilge spending in the late nineties coupled with lack of political will to deal with an imbalance of revenue-income/spending-outgo and not the housing market is the real cause of the CA fiscal mess.

    Comment by Jack Richard — February 26, 2008 @ 5:10 pm

  39. Edvard - Do you not get it? Property tax revenue is not declining - it is being collected, whether the homes resold or held by owners, and new homes are being built. – That equates to more revenue, not less. Although you may be right in one regard - it seems most tax collected on new developments falls into that category of “tax increment” and goes to repay the bonds used to build the developments. With $81 Billion in outstanding Re-D bonds the State loses more to ‘redevelopment’ than it needs for improving education.

    In our city alone over $1.2 Billion worth of properties are in Re-D zones, meaning neither Alameda nor the State get ANY tax revenue increase from the escalating property values and taxes in those zones. The tax increments go to repay the bonds. The same will be true for everything else to be built with Re-D debt in Alameda. (Like Alameda Landing) The Point too has of course already been zoned to be built with debt to be paid with additional Re-D Bonds, (good-bye future tax increments), so don’t look for additional property tax revenue there either.

    Every year the % of State budget going to cover Re-D is increasing, so until the citizens can get the Re-D laws changed to require at least a vote of the people to make it harder to abuse those laws, everything else we do is moot. We need to stop creating more Re-D debt.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 26, 2008 @ 6:31 pm

  40. Edvard has lost it and is being blinded by his delusional fantasies of seeing home prices here get to the level of his beloved TN! Frankly my dear, why don’t you just pack your bags for TN?

    Is this the same guy who used to post as superintendent and a few other monikers?

    Comment by Melissa J — February 26, 2008 @ 7:17 pm

  41. Edvard, I do hope that if you intend on buying a home in the area, you rely on something other than some real estate apocalypse with no return. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed but Alameda is doing considerably well. Haven’t heard of a single foreclosure from anyone I know in town. While prices are soft, nothing is dipping low enough to where a new/lower income bracket could afford to buy here. When the market bounces back, and logic says it inevitably will, Alameda will become increasingly more expensive.

    Comment by MarkD — February 26, 2008 @ 8:57 pm

  42. Edvard — you might want to read Patrick.net. That site has a very good summary of the factors that created the real estate bubble and ultimately, the real estate crash. “Restrictions” of any sort weren’t much of a factor — it was securitization of mortgages and very creative lending standards that led to an ever increasing pool of borrowers, more demand and higher prices. Now the same factors are working in reverse. The “credit crisis” is actually a return of conventional lending standards. It’s true tho that Alameda seems far less likely to lose value than Antioch, for example.

    As for “New Urbanism”: as I understand it, the design is supposed to fit the site, not the other way around. Now, somehow, it’s come to be the other way around — the site is supposed to fit the design, all the time, no matter what. Let’s imagine the most extreme case — suppose it’s 10 feet above sea level, on fill, just a few miles from a major earthquake fault, has toxic waste, and is accessible only by an underwater tunnel and some old draw bridges. What else? I won’t throw in tsunamis because nobody would believe that and anyway, I don’t want to overstate things.

    Comment by Darcy Morrison — February 26, 2008 @ 10:51 pm

  43. Look- all anyone that thinks that ” It can’t happen here.” needs to do is check their facts. The Facts are that for 94501 alone, there’s a 16.3% decline in home values already, and mostly from August on out. The numbers read as follows:

    Here’s a link, but for those too lazy to look, I’ll post the juicy tidbits for you: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSFC.shtm

    Alameda, 94501,Jan,08:
    sales declines: -40.7% YOY
    median: $552,500; -16.3%

    To put this into perspective, the declines in the Bay Area from 1989-1997 was approximately 10-15% spread over the course of 8 years. That was mostly attributed to stagnation and the effects of inflation. On the other hand, less than a year out, we’ve already breached that number.

    I admit that yes- some areas will fare better than others. But Alameda didn’t escape the same kinds of lunacy that everywhere else did and also got heavily overvalued, which as I’ve mentioned countless times was only supported by phony financing that is no longer available.

    Mellisa and Dave… I’ve never claimed that CA will ever be as cheap as TN. I’ve only used it as an example to show the severe quality of life differences between here and there. Don’t get pissed just because something that I’ve been talking about on this blog for years, which is that prices are eventually going to come down- and now are is now coming entirely true. and Dave,I know you for a fact bought at the peak. I’m not sure if you have room to talk.

    Regardless, you all can either keep right on pretending that your homes are still worth 650k and that some idiot is simply going to pay what you want for it, or you can accept the reality that the atmosphere that created those prices was totally bogus and that you will not be able to count on your home to simply defy basic economics and remain unaffordable to basically anyone not making 200k or more per year. I for one will not be giving any of you the pleasure of paying anything close to what these homes ‘were’ worth. I have a realistic price range in mind, which I assure you will be coming back sooner than later.

    And about the taxes… DK, please re-read my reply again. The answer was stated quiet plainly and I don’t like retyping something that should have been entirely obvious.

    Comment by edvard — February 27, 2008 @ 8:04 am

  44. Yes, I bought at the peak. At the same time, I sold another property at the peak. The old property has likely declined ~10%, the new one has held fairly steady. Arb is tough to lock in illiquid environmnets, I pulled off a bit of it without materially hurting my balance sheet.

    Does actually knowing WTF I’m doing mean I have “room to talk” in willyworld?

    Comment by dave — February 27, 2008 @ 8:42 am

  45. pls ignore 44, sent in pique

    Comment by dave — February 27, 2008 @ 9:02 am

  46. Try and sell it first. Then get back to us. There’s a big difference between paper wealth and the money in your pocket. So “holding steady” means about as much as the value of the paper it’s written on. My car is worth “x” dollars in my mind but in reality, the value is only as such as it would sell for what the asking price is.

    That’s the problem with the Bay Area. We have about the richest people in the country in terms of paper but about the poorest as well, and both from the same source: Their homes.

    Comment by edvard — February 27, 2008 @ 10:23 am

  47. 46

    If you’re right, Edvard, when you say: “We have about the richest people in the country in terms of paper but about the poorest as well, and both from the same source: Their homes.”, why is it you want to make the already poor poorer by raising the taxes on their “paper” wealth? Whether it’s by rescinding prop 13 or adding another parcel tax the result would be subtracting already scarce “real” money from the pockets of poor people with little but quickly disappearing “paper” in their pockets.

    Comment by Jack Richard — February 27, 2008 @ 12:14 pm

  48. Jack,
    Interesting that you mentioned taking money out of the pockets of the poor when above you mentioned that you doubted that the poor would ever be able to afford a home in Alameda.

    But in any case, I’m a full believer in cause and affect economics. Look at it this way. In the early 70’s, Americans drove massive cars that got an avg of 10-12MPG. Then came OPEC and the oil crisis. So what happened? Did everyone stop driving? Did the country go to hell in a hand basket? Not exactly, but as a result, smaller more fuel efficient cars became popular and the avg family car went from going 12MPG to 25MPG in less than 3 short years.

    The same would in effect happen to Homeowners. Right now, homes here are very much like those dinosaur cars of the 70’s, with high prices that don’t match economics. This, as pointed out is unhealthy and in mine and many other leading economists minds one of the main cause for the financial issues of the state.

    With taxation, this would create an element of liability with homeowners. This would serve to equilibrate the balance. You can’t have it all one way, with existing homeowners being protected under an umbrella where their home values can go into the stratosphere with no taxable consequence. With taxation, the natural inclination will be to keep this in check, which in turn is actually good for not only homeowners, but for future home buyers and the general economy as well since the severe swings in booms and busts would probably be solved by such implementations of liable taxation attached to value.In reality, this would create stability for both. As it is now, buyers who want to get a decent deal must wait until a bust occurs, as the one we’ve just started and therefor must wait until the prices fall sufficiently as I am doing. On the other hand, this is also bad for sellers since during times like these, they must either accept increasingly lower amounts for their property, which could be problematic if they have to sell for any number of reasons, or wait for the usual 5-10 years for the return of an up tick market.

    If anything, the financial situation in the state must be addressed lest we keep right on hemorrhaging money

    Comment by edvard — February 27, 2008 @ 1:40 pm

  49. Edvard (From #43)-
    “And about the taxes… DK, please re-read my reply again. The answer was stated quiet plainly and I don’t like retyping something that should have been entirely obvious.”

    Ed - Is cut & paste too hard? - If I could not glean a reasonable explanation the first time, I obviously need it pointed out if it is there. At this point since you post so often… it’s pointless waste of MY time to look.

    If you meant this as your reply (from #36):

    “When that happens, the state loses property tax. As mentioned, California just like most other states counts on future home sales and the subsequent taxes that come afterwards. Tax that they can no longer count on or get. So the results are the same, which is a massive budget shortfall…..”

    I repeat my question “Don’t you get it? - Ca is not going to get $ from new developments - please review the rest of #39 for the explanation on how that money goes to Re-D, not to the CA Treasury!!! If you are simply agreeing that the State’s shortfall is in a large part due to Re-D, then we agree, ‘Nuff said.

    Comment by David Kirwin — February 27, 2008 @ 4:27 pm

  50. Edvard, asking you a simple question is like banging your head against a wall because it feels so good when you quit.

    Comment by Jack Richard — February 27, 2008 @ 4:43 pm

  51. DK,
    I wanted to apologize because after doing some more reading, Property taxes are really only a small part of the big picture as to why there’s a 14.5 billion dollar deficit. So I was incorrect in my earlier assumptions.

    But the truth of the matter is that problem is much deeper than that and yes- home sales play a huge part in that for none other than the fact that Californians invested so much of their incomes into housing. In other words, we got to such a make or break situation where families and investors were counting on it’s non-ending rise that when the rise finally stopped and the declines set in, it did exactly that. It broke the system and effectively put a huge damper on income for the state.In summary, the California economy was heavily reliant on Real Estate. The state was only too happy to spend, spend, spend during that time period while failing to realize that much of the wealth stemming from the economy was in fact perilously reliant on a gigantic bubble. So the state had already spent a majority of their income by the time the crisis began to rear it’s head.

    I found this article which does a pretty good job of explaining what’s going on:

    http://tiny.cc/hy4mx

    Take a look at the graphs there. Very interesting information.

    Comment by edvard — February 28, 2008 @ 7:11 am

  52. I wanted to add one last note on this topic, which has more or less transformed into another conversation about housing and it’s impact on those who own or want to own with the same equally compelling reasons for having it one way or another for the self-interest of each side.

    I wanted to cite a very real example of what could just as easily happen to the Bay Area if more reasonable forms of housing are not found, which is the total drain of it’s future think tanks and young professionals which ultimately spells economic death. I assume all of you would scoff at the idea, but let’s use what many consider to be San Francisco’s East Coast twin. Boston.

    I lived there for 3 years so I’m very familiar with it. Just like here, it has a fairly liberal, progressive populace and higher incomes. Just like here, it too has excessively high home prices. The difference is that their boom went for far longer. The results are that MA and Boston are now suffering from economic fallout and an increasingly aged population; those who ” got in” when it was cheaper.

    I think anyone who thinks that high home prices can’t have an ultimately disastrous outcome should read this report.

    The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. “Are high prices a sign of Boston’s success, or a damper on that success?”

    “An opinion piece in the latest issue of Banker & Tradesman that argued Massachusetts needs more home construction — even now, when the market appears glutted — because housing prices are too high and only a lot more homes can change the situation.”

    “The writer is Benjamin Fierro of the Home Builders Association of Massachusetts, which has a professional interest in the debate.”

    “The basic argument is certainly correct. The current drop in housing prices is extremely modest compared to the climb that preceded it. The middle of the Massachusetts market is still roughly twice as expensive as it was a decade ago. And while prices are likely to keep dropping in the coming months, almost no one thinks we’re on our way back to 1997 prices, even adjusting for inflation.”

    “Are Boston’s housing prices sending young professionals to other cities? A recent editorial in the Salem News tells the story of Maureen Hentz, a recruiter for a company based in Danvers, who says that job candidates routinely reject her offers of six-figure salaries because they’d rather buy a larger house in another state.”

    “‘I can’t get somebody to move from Cleveland to here,’ the paper quotes Hentz as saying.”

    “The mayor of Salem is quoted as responding, ‘I’ve been to Cleveland, and you can’t touch what we have here.’”

    Comment by edvard — February 29, 2008 @ 10:11 am

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